Tagged: Rodriguez

Why the Angels should trade everything for Halladay

  • Trade speculation is fun.
The Angels should trade everything and the kitchen sink to get Roy Halladay.
1.  They are one game behind the AL-East leading Texas Rangers.  It’s reasonable to expect the Mariners to choke and for the Rangers’ pitching to return to the norm for that park.
2.  Ervin Santana and John Lackey.  Blech.  They’ll get better someday, but 2009 won’t be the year.
3.  You have the prospects and the dough to pay for Halladay.
4.  You have two great prospects who are blocked, so their biggest value is as trade pieces.  What more could you get than the 2nd- or 3rd- best pitcher in the majors and have him under your control through 2010?  Need I remind you you’ll get first crack at extending his contract as well.
5.  Your rotation would be:
      • Roy Halladay
      • John Lackey
      • Jered Weaver
      • Joe Saunders
      • Ervin Santana

6.  Pick your favorite three and there’s your playoff rotation.

Here’s why the trade makes sense:
  • Brandon Wood (SS/3B) and Sean Rodriguez (2B/SS) are two young power hitters who are currently blocked by excellent players, Howie Kendrick, Chone Figgins, and Erick Aybar.  One could argue that Wood would be an upgrade over either Kendrick or Aybar, but Kendrick’s talent level coming into the majors will display itself soon, and the Angels would be wrong to not get him every at bat they can.
  • Angels have a couple lower-level pitching prospects to send as well.  They don’t need them right away, and the Angels are one of the few teams with the ability to buy free-agent pitching every year.  Not that they should.  But definitely a few young arms and bats are worth Halladay.
  • In my opinion, the Angels would be come either the favorite or one of the favorites, to win the World Series in 2009 AND 2010 with Halladay and an already-excellent lineup.
  • The Jays’ rotation is deep enough to handle this trade.  Especially when it gets healthy in 2010.  Marcum and McGowan will be back (although McGowan’s injury COULD be career-threatening).  Romero is establishing himself as a real-deal #1.  Brett Cecil shows promise, although his 2009 era is “bleh”.
  • The Jays will lose Scutaro to free agency this season.
  • Rolen is a harsh breeze away from the DL and is getting older anyway.

Hey Riccardi, how does this lineup for 2011 strike you?

RF Alex Rios

2B Aaron Hill

LF Adam Lind

3B Brandon Wood

CF Vernon Wells

DH Travis Snider

SS Sean Rodriguez

C  J.P. Arencibia

1B Lyle Overbay

I would take that lineup for 2011 and for the next five seasons.

How about this rotation?

Ricky Romero

Shaun Marcum

Scott Richmond

Dustin McGowan

Brett Cecil

That’s a highly-competitive rotation of talented pitchers – most of whom will be 2 seasons closer to their prime in a couple years.  They will GAIN skill, not lose it to age.

Blue Jays:  Make this trade!

The 2009 Yankees at Half-Price!

The Yankees’ spending has been subject of ire for baseball fans nationwide, particularly this offseason as the global economy has declined.  Companies all over the world are trimming payrolls, laying off skilled employees, restructuring, and instituting payroll and hiring freezes.  Meanwhile, the Yankees , who already boasted an MLB-high 2008 payroll of $209,081,577 (thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for the figures in this article), awarded Alex Rodriguez $275 million over 10 years in 2008 and in 2009 awarded CC Sabathia $161 million over 7 years, Mark Teixeira $180 million over 8 years, and A.J. Burnett $82.5 million over 5 years.   Those last 3 players rank as the 2nd, 3rd, and 5th highest-paid players on the Yankees payroll, and they were signed while a severe economic depression was in full-swing.  Scandalous!

Armed with that eyebrow-raising information, I have built a team of Anti-Yankees – that is to say a team that I feel can score the same number of runs as the 2009 New York Yankees, but for less than half the yearly price.

Here are the rules I played by:

1.       Salary figures are 2009 figures, where available.

2.       Lineup and Rotation/Bullpen spots will line up as closely as possible between existing Yankee and proposed Anti-Yankee.

3.       Players selected for Anti-Yankees club must have been available, either through trade or free-agency, at some point during their career.  Therefore, players under control of the team they were drafted by (such as Tim Lincecum), and players that have never hit free agency (such as Lance Berkman) are ineligible

4.       Total 2009 payroll must be less than half the Yankees’ 2009 Payroll

5.       Team stats must line up as closely as possible.

6.       If a player (Yankee or otherwise) missed significant time in 2008, his stats from his most recent complete season were used.

7.       Average age off the team  must be EQUAL

8.       Stats for Anti-Yankee team will be adjusted proportionally to match the number of At-Bats achieved by Yankee Lineup counterpart.

The 2009 Yankees (my projected batting order and rotation)

Average Age = 31

Batting Lineup:

1.       LF Johnny Damon ($13,000,000.00)

2.       SS Derek Jeter ($20,000,000.00)

3.       1B Mark Teixeira ($20,000,000.00)

4.       3B Alex Rodriguez ($32,000,000.00)

5.       DH Hideki Matsui ($13,000,000.00)

6.       RF Xavier Nady ($6,550,000.00)

7.       C Jorge Posada ($13,100,000.00)

8.       CF Nick Swisher ($5,300,000.00)*

9.       2B Robinson Cano ($6,000,000.00)

Pitching Rotation:

1.       CC Sabathia ($14,000,000.00)

2.       A.J. Burnett ($16,500,000.00)

3.       Chien-Ming Wang ($5,000,000.00)

4.       Andy Pettitte ($5,500,000.00)

5.       Joba Chamberlain ($390,000.00)

Bullpen:

1.       Closer Mariano Rivera ($15,000,000.00)

2.       Set-Up Damaso Marte ($3,750,000.00)

TOTAL 2009 SALARY OF SELECTED PLAYERS = $189,090,000.00

*Yes , I am aware the Yankees have not settled on an every-day CF, but it would be a mistake to not give every-day at-bats to Swisher.  He gets on base, he hits for power, and is relatively young.  At worst he needs the at-bats to showcase his talent for a midseason trade.

 

THE ANTI-YANKEES

Lineup Spot #1:  Leadoff

Yankee:
LF Johnny Damon, Age 35. ($13,000,000.00)
2008
Stats (AB: 555) (R: 95) (H:168) (HR: 17) (RBI: 71) (SB: 29) (OBP: 0.375) (SLG: 0.461) (AVG: 0.303)

Anti -Yankee:
CF Shane Victorino, Age 28. ($3,125,000.00)
2008 Stats Adjusted for 555 AB:
Stats (AB: 555) (R: 99) (H:163) (HR: 14) (RBI: 56) (SB: 35) (OBP: 0.352) (SLG: 0.447) (AVG: 0.293)

Lineup Spot #2

Yankee:
SS Derek Jeter, Age 34. ($20,000,000.00)
2008
Stats (AB: 596) (R:88) (H: 179)(HR: 11) (RBI: 69) (SB: 11) (OBP: 0.363) (SLG: 0.408) (AVG: 0.300)

Anti-Yankee:
RF Randy Wynn, Age 34. ($8,875,000.00)
2008 Stats Adjusted for 596 AB:
Stats: (AB; 596) (R: 84) (H: 182) (HR: 10) (RBI: 64) (SB: 25) (OBP: 0.363) (SLG: 0.426) (AVG: 0.306)
**Note:  How many die-hard Yankee fans will scream upon learning that offensively, Derek Jeter was worse in 2008 than Randy Wynn?  Ouch!

Lineup Spot #3

Yankee:
1B Mark Teixeira, Age 28 ($20,000,000.00)
2008
Stats: (AB: 574) (R: 102) (H: 177) (HR: 33) (SB: 2) (OBP: 0.410) (SLG: 0.552) (AVG: 0.308)

Anti-Yankee:
LF Josh Hamilton, Age 27. ($396,830.00)**
2008 Stats Adjusted for 574 AB:
Stats: (AB: 574) (R:90) (H: 175) (HR: 29) (SB: 8) (OBP: 0.371) (SLG: 0.530) (AVG: 0.304)
**Hamilton is due for a hefty pay raise, but nothing approaching Teix’ $20M, and he’s only 1 year younger.

Lineup Spot #4: Cleanup

Yankee:
3B Alex Rodriguez, Age 33. ($32,000,000.00)
2008
Stats: (AB : 510) (R: 104) (H: 154) (HR: 35) (RBI: 103) (SB: 18) (OBP: 0.392) (SLG: 0.573) (AVG: 0.302)

Anti-Yankee:
DH Ryan Ludwick, Age 30. ($4,250,000.00 – Player Arbitration Figure)**
2008 Stats adjusted for 510 AB:
Stats: (AB: 510) (R: 99) (H: 153) (HR: 35) (RBI: 107) (SB: 4) (OBP: 0.375) (SLG: 0.591) (AVG: 0.299)
**Holy guacamole!  Averaged out, Ryan Ludwick had as good a 2008 as A-Rod, for $25M less cost!

Lineup Spot #5:

Yankee:
DH Hideki Matsui, Age 33. ($13,000,000.00)
2007**
Stats: (AB: 547) (R: 100) (H: 156) (HR: 25) (RBI: 103) (SB: 4) (OBP: 0.367) (SLG: 0.488) (AV: 0.285)
**Matsui spent most of 2008 injured

Anti-Yankee:
1B Aubrey Huff, Age 34. ($8,000,000.00)
2008 Stats adjusted to 510 AB.
Stats: (AB: 510) (R: 82) (H: 155) (HR: 27) (RBI: 92) (SB: 3) (OBP: 0.360) (SLG: 0.552) (AVG: 0.304)

Lineup Spot #6:

Yankee:
RF Xavier Nady, Age 30 ($6,550,000.00)
2008
Stats: (AB:555) (R: 76) (H: 169) (HR: 25) (RBI: 97) (SB: 2) (OBP: 0.357) (SLG: 0.510) (AVG: 0.305)

Anti-Yankee:
3B Troy Glaus, Age 32 ($9,000,000.00)
2008 Stats adjusted for 555 AB.
Stats (AB: 555) (R: 70) (H: 150) (HR: 28) (RBI: 101) (SB: 0) (OBP: 0.372) (SLG: (0.483) (AVG: 0.270)

Lineup Spot #7:

Yankee:
C Jorge Posada, Age 37. ($13,100,000.00)
2006**
Stats (AB: 465) (R: 65) (H: 129) (HR: 23) (RBI: 93) (SB: 3) (OBP: 0.374) (SLG: 0.492) (AVG: 0.277)
**Posada was injured during 2008, and 2007 stats are hugely out of line with career averages.

Anti-Yankee:
2B Alexei Ramirez, Age 27 ($1,100,000.00)**
2008 Stats adjusted to 465 AB.
Stats (AB: 465) (R: 69) (H: 147) (HR: 22) (RBI: 81) (SB: 14) (OBP: 0.317) (SLG: 0.475) (AVG: 0.290)
**There is a slight drop-off in production here, but the increase in base-running and AVG make up for shortcomings in OBP

Lineup Spot #8:

Yankee:
CF Nick Swisher, Age 28. ($5,300,000.00)
2007 Stats**
Stats (AB: 539) (R: 84) (H: 141) (HR:22) (RBI: 78) (SB: 3) (OBP:  0.381) (SLG: 0.455) (AVG 0.262)
**In 2008, Swisher was often used out of position and in a lineup spot he did not seem entirely comfortable in.  2007 stats are more in line with his career averages.

Anti-Yankee:
SS Carlos Guillen, Age 33 ($10,000,000.00)
2007 Stats adjusted for 539 AB
Stats: (AB: 539) (R: 82) (HR: 20) (RBI: 97) (SB: 12) (OBP: 0.322) (SLG: 0.445) (AVG: 0.292)

Lineup Spot #9

Yankee
2B Robinson Cano, Age 26. ($6,000,000.00)
2008
Stats: (AB: 597) (R: 70) (H: 162) (HR: 14) (RBI: 72) (SB: 2) (OBP: 0.305) (SLG: 0.410) (AVG: 0.271)

Anti- Yankee
C Bengie Molina, Age 34 ($6,000,000.00)
2008 Stats adjusted for 597 AB
Stats: (AB: 597) (R: 52) (H: 175) (HR: 18) (RBI: 107) (SB: 0) (OBP: 0.322) (SLG: 0.445) (AVG: 0.292)

Rotation Spot #1

Yankee
SP CC Sabathia, Age 28. ($14,000,000.00)
2007**
Stats (IP: 241) (ERA: 3.21) (H: 241) (BB: 37) (K: 209)
**2008 stats way out of line with career averages

Anti-Yankee
SP Erik Bedard, Age 29 ($7,750,000.00)
2007 stats adjusted for 241 IP
Stats (IP: 241) (ERA: 3.16) (H: 187) (BB: 75) (K: 293)

Rotation Spot #2

Yankee
SP A.J. Burnett, Age 32. ($16,500,000.00)
2008
Stats (IP: 221.1) (ERA: 4.07) (H: 238) (BB: 86) (K: 231)

Anti-Yankee
SP Jaime Moyer, Age 46 ($6,500,000.00)
2008 Stats adjusted for 221.1 IP
Stats: (IP: 221.1) (ERA: 3.71) (H: 224) (BB: 70) (K: 139)

Rotation Spot #3

Yankee
SP Chien-Ming Wang, Age 28. ($5,000,000.00)
2007**
Stats: (IP: 199.1) (ERA: 3.70) (H: 199) (BB: 70) (K: 104)
**Wang was injured most off 2008

Anti-Yankee
SP Justin Duchscherer, Age 31. ($4,600,000.00)
2008 Stats adjusted for 199.1 IP
Stats: (IP: 199.1) (ERA: 2.54) (H: 151) (BB: 48) (K: 134)

Rotation Spot #4

Yankee
SP Andy Pettitte, Age 36 ($5,500,000.00)
2008
Stats: (IP: 204) (ERA: 4.54) (H: 233) (BB: 55) (K: 158)

Anti-Yankee
SP Edwin Jackson, Age 32 ($2,200,000.00)
2008 Stats adjusted for 204 IP
Stats: (IP: 204) (ERA: 4.42) (H: 222) (BB: 86) (K: 120)

Rotation Spot #5

Yankee
SP Joba Chamberlain, Age 23 ($390,000.00)
2008
Stats: (IP: 100.1) (ERA: 2.60) (H: 87) (BB: 39) (K: 118)

Anti-Yankee
SP Edinson Volquez, Age 28 ($392,500.00)
2008 Stats adjusted for 100.1 IP
Stats: (IP: 100.1) (ERA: 3.21) (H: 85) (BB: 47) (K: 105)

Set-Up Man

Yankee
RP Damaso Marte, Age 33 ($3,750,000.00)
2008
Stats: (IP: 65) (ERA: 4.02) (H: 52) (BB: 26) (K: 71)

Anti-Yankee
RP Taylor Buchholz, Age 27 ($1,055,000.00)
2008 Stats adjusted for 65 IP
Stats: (IP: 65) (ERA: 2.17) (H: 44) (BB: 18) (K: 55)

Closer

Yankee
RP Mariano Rivera, Age 39 ($15,000,000.00)
2008
Stats: (IP: 70.2) (ERA: 1.40) (H: 41) (BB: 6) (K: 71) (SV: 39)

Anti-Yankee
RP Brad Lidge, Age 32 ($11,500,000.00)
2008 Stats adjusted for 70.2 IP
Stats: (IP: 70.2) (ERA: 2.17) (H: 51) (BB: 36) (K: 93) (SV: 41)

So, my 2009 Anti-Yankee team consists of the following:

Average Age = 31

Batting Lineup:

  1. CF Shane Victorino ($3,125,000.00)
  2. RF Randy Wynn ($8,875,000.00)
  3. LF Josh Hamilton ($396,830.00)
  4. DH Ryan Ludwick ($4,250,000.00)
  5. 1B Aubrey Huff ($8,000,000.00)
  6. 3B Troy Glaus ($9,000,000.00)
  7. 2B Alexei Ramirez ($1,100,000.00)
  8. SS Carlos Guillen ($10,000,000.00)
  9. C Bengie Molina ($6,000,000.00)

 

Pitching Rotation:

 

  1. Erik Bedard ($7,750,000.00)
  2. Jamie Moyer ($6,500,000.00)
  3. Justin Duchscherer ($4,600,000.00)
  4. Edwin Jackson ($2,200,000.00)
  5. Edinson Volquez ($392,500.00)

 

Bullpen:

 

  1. CL Brad Lidge ($11,500,000.00)
  2. SU Taylor Buchholz ($1,055,000.00)

 

TOTAL SALARY OF SELECTED PLAYERS = $84,744,330.00 (45% of Yankees’ Salary above)

 

TEAM STATS:

Yankees
BAT: (R: 784) (HR: 205) (RBI: 807) (AVG OBP: 0.369) (AVG SLG: 0.483) (AVG AVG: 0.291)
PITCH: (H: 1061) (ER: 440) (BB: 308) (K: 968)

 

Anti-Yankees
BAT: (R: 727) (HR: 203) (RBI: 826) (AVG OBP: 0.354) (AVG SLG: 0.494) (AVG AVG: 0.295)
PITCH:  (H: 1101) (ER: 399) (BB:380) (K: 939
)

 

The point is, despite the hype of the big-spending teams like the Yankees, a lower-budget club with a good talent-recognition program such as the Brewers, A’s, or Rays, will always be able to compete.  Overpaid veterans are nice if you have a few of them, but building an entire team of such players is a complete waste of resources.

 

This is as good a reason as any why a salary cap is NOT needed in Major League Baseball.  Every team has their own tactic to success.  Perhaps unsuccessful franchises (I’m looking at you, Pittsburgh and Washington and Baltimore) should consider applying a different strategy to their organization, because success in MLB will always be attainable if you have a good front office.

 

Anti-Yankees.xls